Amid the euphoria reverberating through YouTube, with influencers enthusiastically heralding the dawn of a new bull market, it’s easy to forget the larger global economic picture. Bitcoin’s surge in value is due to the widespread anticipation of the imminent approval of a spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).

While this is a powerful narrative, it’s easy to lose sight of the fact that in the attention economy of YouTube, creators have to call this a bull run if they want to get people to click on their videos. However powerful their arguments are, they may be a mirage, concealing the possibility of a bull trap.

Simultaneously, the geopolitical landscape appears far from tranquil, with the United States and Europe teetering on the brink of another Middle East conflict. At the same time, the protracted Ukraine crisis shows no signs of resolution. Adding to the complexity, central banks find themselves nearly drained of their tools to combat inflation as their economies tighten.

Concerns persist within the banking sector, with regional banks in the United States facing scrutiny again. Across the Pacific in China, the central government recently injected over $100 billion into its financial markets, a move aimed at suppressing interest rates.

A spiraling war in the Middle East could engulf the area, dragging the U.S., Europe, Russia, and China into conflict. Such a situation would undoubtedly stoke inflation, wreaking havoc on the economies of major nations.

The cascading effect of this scenario will cause vast sums of money to be printed. Trade routes would be affected, disrupting supply chains struggling to recover from the Covid pandemic. In addition, Saudi Arabia and Russia would likely reduce oil production further, leading to higher manufacturing and transportation costs.

Against this backdrop, any present gains in crypto will likely be short-lived and related to ETF speculation rather than any radical shift in the financial landscape. It is also imperative to consider the ongoing turbulence in U.S. politics, with the House of Representatives grappling to elect a speaker and a forthcoming presidential election on the horizon.

While approving a spot Bitcoin ETF in the coming months seems probable, it is unlikely to catalyze a resounding crypto bull run while the broader economy flounders. Instead, we are poised for a series of price pumps and dumps in the lead-up to ETF approval, interspersed with protracted sideways price movement.

This narrative resembles the volatility and liquidity drain experienced during the memecoin frenzy a few months ago. At that time, the same voices emerged, claiming this was the start of a new bull run.

In truth, we’re observing the existing crypto community capitalizing on volatility to harvest profits during an otherwise stagnant market phase. A substantial influx of new capital must enter the market for a genuine bull run to manifest.

Many people expect this to happen with the approval of an ETF; however, the way the approval takes place will likely dampen this effect to try and avoid overheating the market. There will be a significant inflow of funds once an ETF is approved; however, this will probably be split across the synthetic crypto market and the spot market.

With a highly volatile geopolitical situation developing and central banks struggling to manage inflation and spiraling government debt, most investors still seek the safety of bonds rather than stocks or crypto. While navigating the peaks and troughs of a bear market can be exhausting, our focus remains steadfastly on building. Instead of worrying about price, we’re continuing to lay the foundations for when the real bull market begins.