Tata Steel Share Price Target 2025, 2030, and 2040: Green Steel Transition and Future Outlook » InvestingCube

Tata Steel Ltd is an Indian steel maker which also has operations in the UK, Netherlands and Thailand. Tata Steel share price NSE is listed as part of the Nifty 50 index.

Tata Steel Live Chart

Tata Steel Share Price Target 2025: Global Steel Cycle and Near-term Realizations

The latest 12-month institutional and brokerage Tata Steel share price projections are based on the earnings results of Q2 2026, released in early November 2025. In essence, these are Tata steel share price targets 2026.

• Motilal Oswal has a Buy recommendation after upgrading itsTata steel share price target 2025 to INR 210. This followed the Q2 2026 earnings beat.
• Nomura has a Tata steel future share price target of INR 215, along with a Buy recommendation. The bank’s research team points to improving growth drivers for the company’s Indian operations.
• According to Morgan Stanley, the share price of Tata steel is expected to hit INR 200, which is the same as Jefferies. Jeffries upgraded its price target from INR 180 in May 2025. However, Jeffries has a Buy recommendation while Morgan Stanley’s is overweight.
• ICICI Securities has a price target of INR 180, and recommends a Buy.
• CLSA has a Hold recommendation, with a INR 170 as the Tata steel future share price.

The technical outlook shows that the breakout move from the bullish flag seen in the chart below has to clear the current all-time high at 184.17 to attain the price targets set at INR 200 and above.

Tata Steel Share Price Target 2030: India’s Domestic Capacity Expansion & Demand Drivers

There are no major brokerage or institutional publications that showcase the Tata Steel share price targets for 2030. However, the share price of Tata steel in 2030 will depend on the progress of the domestic capacity expansion of its Indian business, which currently drives the company’s revenue footprint. Commodity spreads, the import policy of China (the major consumer of the company’s exported steel), and the speed of the company’s European energy transition process are demand drivers that will push the Tata steel future share price.

Any Tata steel share price targets for 2030 have to be extrapolated using the projected EPS for 2030, the P/E ratios, mid-cycle EBITDA and CAGR projections.

Tata Steel Share Price Target 2040: Decarbonization (Green Steel) & Long Term Sustainability

The progress and impact of the company’s decarbonization program for its European and UK operations will have an impact on the Tata steel share price targets for 2040. The Tata group as a whole is pushing for net zero carbon emissions by 2045, adopted in its 2024 climate change report.

For its Indian operations, building of scrap-based electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and increased use of natural gas for its energy needs is the backbone of this drive, but this will create heavy capex pull that will impact the debt profile and pose execution risks well into the 2030s.

Current Tata steel share price targets for 2040 are built on pricing models that utilize certain parameters captured in this formula:

Tata steel share price 2040 = 2040 EPS x 2040 P/E ratio,

where 2040 EPS = base EPS x (1+g) ^/\{15}

Hitting a bull case price close to the INR 300 price mark requires an end-P/E of 12x, EPS CAGR of 15% and base EPS of INR 3.0.

Reasons for Volatility: Why Tata Steel Share Price is Falling/Rising Today

The share price of Tata Steel retested the prior all-time high of June 18, 2024 at 184.60, but failed to breach that barrier. The subsequent formation of a double top at that resistance on a lower time frame chart makes a case for a pullback from that resistance. However, a push towards the 167.57 support is only made possible if the rising trendline is degraded.

The decline in the Tata Steel share price NSE today is purely a function of the technical picture. It should be noted that the prior upside move was a completion of the expected price projection from the bullish flag, which is seen in Figure 1 above.

Fundamental Analysis: Debt Profile, Merger Integration & European Operations

India remains the company’s profit engine generator. India deliveries spiked 20% in the Q2 2025, following the inauguration of the expansion of the Kalinganagar Phase II and subsequent increase in steel production capacity from 3 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) to 8 million tonnes per annum. Capex spend remains largely focused on the Indian operations, which also includes some energy-transition projects. The company’s EBITDA from its Indian operations has received a boost from the 12% safeguard duty, which has served to support local steel prices.

Key to Tata steel future share price action is the ongoing restructuring of its European operations in a bid to shift to cleaner energy usage. At its UK Port Talbot plant, the company’s £1.25bn project to shift from energy-intensive blast furnace technology to the cleaner and more energy-conserving electric arc furnaces (EAF) aims at a 90% CO2 emissions reduction by end-2027. Furthermore, the signing of a non-binding agreement with the Dutch government for the Ijmuiden Netherlands operations to transit to lower-emission steel production through the increased use of EAFs as well as increased scrap utilization is part of the overall decarbonization of Tata Steel’s European operations.

Despite the rising gross and net debt profile (₹84,835 crore to ₹87,040 crore) which is largely due to the increased spending on energy transition, the company’s higher EBITDA from its Indian operations has helped to stabilize the company’s financials.

Expert Consensus: Analysis Ratings and Price Targets

The expert consensus and analysis ratings are discussed in the first paragraph. The average of 17 polled analyst ratings and price targets as showcased on Trendlyne point to a price of INR 176, which is slightly below the Tata steel share price today.

• CLSA’s target implies that there will be a slight downside to the Tata Steel share price today.
• Jefferies, Nomura, Motilal and Morgan Stanley all have targets that have an implied upside.
• ICICI Securities has a near flat outlook.

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