Santiment Flags ADA as “Opportunity Zone” Despite Losses

• Cardano’s 365-day MVRV dropped to -43%, placing ADA in Santiment’s opportunity zone as active wallets remain deep underwater.
• Binance funding data shows ADA short interest at its highest weekly level since June 2023, while ADA rebounded about 5% to $0.261.

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Santiment has identified Cardano’s current market position as an “opportunity zone” after the token’s 365-day Market Value to Realized Value ratio dropped to deeply negative levels. The data shows that wallets active on the network over the past year now sit on an average return of about -43%. That reading places ADA far below its longer-term average and points to a period when holders face steep paper losses.

The on-chain data arrived as Cardano continued to trade near multi-month lows. ADA has fallen about 71% since September, and that decline has pushed many participants into a loss. Santiment linked the current MVRV level to earlier periods when downside pressure had already stretched too far, and traders started exploring reversal setups with lower risk.

📉 Average wallets that have been active on the Cardano network over the past year are netting a return of -43% on their investments. Memes aside about the altcoin's major -71% price decline since September, this extreme negative MVRV value is generally an indicator of $ADA being… pic.twitter.com/LzQRKhobQe

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 24, 2026

The data also showed a sharp change in derivatives positioning. Binance funding rates moved heavily in favor of short traders, and the ratio of shorts to longs reached its highest weekly level since June 2023. Crowded shorts can force quick liquidation and fuel price rebounds. 

Cardano (ADA) Tests Recovery 

ADA recorded a modest recovery at the start of the week, rising from about $0.251 to $0.261 on Tuesday, a 5% gain. The move followed broader relief in risk assets after geopolitical tension eased, with traders reacting to news of a five-day pause in planned U.S. military strikes on Iranian power facilities.

Even with that rebound, Cardano’s network activity remains weak. Lower user activity has matched the broader market slowdown, and that has kept pressure on sentiment around the asset. Still, the combination of deep unrealized losses and aggressive short positioning has shifted attention toward the idea that ADA may be nearing a capitulation area rather than the early stage of another major drop.

Chart data shared alongside the Santiment update paired weekly ADA candles with the 365-day MVRV ratio and Binance funding rates. The chart marked the current MVRV reading below a lower threshold that acts as a buy zone. It also marked the current funding imbalance as the heaviest weekly shorting environment on Binance in nearly three years.

From a technical view, ADA continues to trade inside a narrowing triangle structure on the daily chart. Price has bounced from support near $0.25 and is moving toward resistance around $0.283. A break above that upper boundary could open the way toward the $0.38 levels, while failure to hold the lower trendline could keep the downtrend in place.

Previously, Cardano expanded its retail payment use case in Switzerland through a partnership with DFX.swiss. We reported that shoppers can now pay with ADA at 137 SPAR stores, while merchants can cut transaction fees through Open Crypto Pay.

This month, we also covered that the Cardano Foundation backed a proposal to withdraw 50 million ADA from the Treasury for the Orion Venture Fund.