Gemini Focuses on U.S. Prediction Trading, Exiting EU and UK Markets

Gemini, a cryptocurrency exchange founded by the Winklevoss brothers, is exiting major international markets, including the UK, the EU, and Australia. This marks a change from Gemini’s traditional services toward Gemini Predictions, a decentralized predictions platform.

According to an announcement, the company has also decided to lay off about 25% of the workforce, affecting about 200 employees.

Escalating financial pressures

This move has come at a difficult time, when Gemini is experiencing financial difficulties, having lost $159.5 million in November 2025, owing to a general decline in cryptocurrency value linked to a plunge in the value of Bitcoin.

The firm shared that customer accounts in the affected regions will switch to a withdrawal-only status starting March 5, with a complete shutdown of these services planned for a month later. Moreover, all crypto and fiat assets on these accounts should be withdrawn ahead of 6 April 2026.

For a user planning to shift onto a different exchange, Gemini has partnered with eToro and is also providing special signup bonuses.

The staff cuts will affect roles around the world, including in the United States and Singapore.

Operational costs and digital assets

The Winklevosses stated that foreign markets have become harder to manage due to issues that raised costs and slowed development. By reducing its global presence, the company expects to incur about $11 million in pre-tax restructuring costs as it seeks to simplify its business model.

This retreat indicates a major change for a company that was actually one of the first to emerge in the digital asset sector. This company was established back in 2014, but actually received funding for its operation following a major settlement of a legal suit arising from the establishment of Facebook.

Recent regulatory challenges

Gemini has faced legal scrutiny over the years, including lawsuits from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the State of New York. 

The SEC’s enforcement action was dismissed in January after a joint request, and a separate settlement was reached with New York. However, the regulatory scrutiny, combined with a decline in stock value, which fell over 85% from its September peak, has severely affected the firm’s finances.

The “Truth Machine” initiative

Gemini’s future now centers on its prediction market, launched in mid-December 2025. The founders believe that prediction markets will eventually be as mainstream, if not bigger than, today’s capital markets. 

Since its launch, Gemini Predictions has reportedly processed over $24 million in volume from around 10,000 users. The twins describe this venture as a “truth machine” within their app, arguing that the industry’s future value lies in decentralized forecasting rather than the traditional trading and custody of assets.

Gemini’s new focus

The withdrawal from the UK, EU, and Australia signals a clear end to Gemini’s ambitions as a large global retail exchange.

By cutting a quarter of its staff and focusing on a prediction market niche, the Winklevosses are banking on the hope that prediction markets can offer a more stable path than the volatile spot markets that shaped their first decade in crypto.

Also Read: CFTC Signals Reset for Polymarket, Kalshi as Fed vs States Clash Rises

Disclaimer: The information researched and reported by The Crypto Times is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional financial advice. Investing in crypto assets involves significant risk due to market volatility. Always Do Your Own Research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified Financial Advisor before making any investment decisions.