Will We See a Solana ETF in 2025? Analyzing the Road Ahead

With Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs now a reality, attention is turning to the next likely candidate: Solana.

A growing number of asset managers, including Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, Bitwise, VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary Capital, have filed applications or expressed interest in launching a spot Solana ETF for public trading in the United States. If approved, this could mark a major milestone for the altcoin market, opening up institutional investment in SOL and potentially driving significant price appreciation.

Bitcoin’s price more than doubled after its ETF approval in early 2024, surpassing $100,000. Some analysts have predicted that a Solana ETF approval could push SOL’s price toward $1,290 before 2025 ends.

SOL’s current market performance.Source: CoinMarketCap

Solana’s market has also been strengthening. Its total market capitalization is approaching $100 billion, and futures open interest surpassed $8 billion in January 2025, indicating increasing demand from both retail and institutional investors.

Meanwhile, DEXs on Solana recorded over $60 million in daily trading volume in early 2025, outpacing Ethereum’s $38 million. These factors have led analysts to believe that a Solana ETF approval is becoming more likely, with Bloomberg analysts estimating a 70% chance of approval by October 2025.

But what exactly needs to happen for a Solana ETF to clear regulatory hurdles? And could shifts in the U.S. political landscape accelerate the process?

What Needs to Happen for a Solana ETF to Be Approved?

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been cautious about approving crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), having only approved those for Bitcoin and Ethereum so far. While the political climate has shifted, and the regulator appears more open to such initiatives, the path to approval is unlikely to be swift.

If we take a page from past ETF approvals, one of the biggest challenges is whether the U.S. SEC considers SOL a security. Unlike Bitcoin, which is classified as a commodity, Solana’s classification remains uncertain. If regulators determine that SOL meets the criteria for a security, the ETF approval could face additional legal obstacles.

Ethereum ETFs were approved in 2024, but the SEC has yet to clarify whether ETH is a security. This unresolved issue could foreshadow similar regulatory hurdles for Solana. To pull it further, this classification issue will be a key determinant of whether other altcoin ETFs can follow in Solana’s footsteps.

Also, there are still clarifications needed and factors outside the regulatory framework that must be resolved.

From 2018 to early 2023, the SEC rejected over 20 Bitcoin spot ETF applications due to concerns about market manipulation, approving them only in January 2024 after stronger market oversight and increased institutional demand. The same scrutiny applies to Solana. While Solana boasts over $8 billion in futures open interest, it still trails behind Ethereum and Bitcoin in overall market size and institutional trading volume—key factors regulators consider when assessing market stability.

Solana Futures Open Interest (USD Source: Coinglass

Secure custodianship is another prerequisite. Institutional investors require hack-proof storage solutions before committing to a Solana ETF, and custodians must prove they can safely store and manage SOL holdings at scale.

Major investment firms like BlackRock and Fidelity are already lobbying for broader crypto ETF access. If political pressure keeps growing in favour of crypto adoption, the SEC may face greater incentives to approve a Solana ETF sooner than expected.

Could a Solana ETF Open the Door for Other Altcoin ETFs?

If a Solana ETF is approved, it could set a powerful precedent for other Layer 1 blockchains like Avalanche, Cardano, and newer entrants in the space. The SEC’s acknowledgement of multiple Solana ETF applications suggests a potential shift in regulatory attitudes toward altcoin-based exchange-traded funds.

Institutional interest will be a major driver. A successful Solana ETF with strong investor demand could push financial institutions to lobby for similar products tied to Avalanche, Cardano, and other high-performing blockchains.

VanEck’s digital assets head, Matthew Sigel, believes a Solana ETF could attract billions in new capital. So, if the market demonstrates a clear appetite for altcoin ETFs, regulators may feel more pressure to consider broader approval beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Final Thoughts

Solana’s path to ETF approval looks increasingly viable. With its expanding role in DeFi, gaming, and real-world asset tokenization, Solana presents a compelling case for long-term investors. However, a lot is riding on its approval.

Regulatory uncertainty remains the biggest hurdle. The SEC’s classification of Solana as a commodity or security will shape the entire approval process. Additionally, broader market conditions—including institutional confidence in altcoins and the performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs—will play a role in determining the timeline.

If Solana successfully clears regulatory challenges, its ETF approval could be a turning point for altcoins. A green light from the SEC would not only open the floodgates for institutional capital but also validate the growing adoption of blockchain technology beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Whether this happens in 2025 or later, the outcome will have lasting implications for Solana, the crypto market, and future altcoin ETFs.

Disclaimer: This article is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be considered trading or investment advice. Nothing herein should be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrencies carries a considerable risk of financial loss. Always conduct due diligence.

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