What Does Polymarket Trader Predict About Bitcoin’s 2026 Price
Key Highlights Polymarket traders assign only 21% odds to Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before 2027, showing a cautious market outlook. The highest-confidence bet is $100,000, carrying nearly 80% probability,...
Key Highlights
- Polymarket traders assign only 21% odds to Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before 2027, showing a cautious market outlook.
- The highest-confidence bet is $100,000, carrying nearly 80% probability, while confidence drops sharply above $120,000.
- Despite weak trader odds, analysts remain bullish for 2026, citing rate-cut hopes and upcoming US crypto regulations.
The traders of prediction markets on Polymarket are indicating that they are increasingly wary of the price trend of Bitcoin (BTC), with the probability that the asset will not hit extreme highs before 2027 being low.
Although long term analysts are still positive about the future of Bitcoin, market based probabilities indicate that traders are now more inclined towards more conservative results.
Bitcoin price predictions on Polymarket
Polymarket data that tracks the question “What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?” show traders putting only a 21% probability that Bitcoin will reach a price of $150,000, a price that many bullish projections about 2026 discuss.
The confidence level reduces even more at larger targets, where only 15% is likely at $160,000 and single-digit likelihoods at higher prices. The most probable result on the site is Bitcoin going to $100,000 with the odds of about 80%, the safest bet traders are making at the moment.
Even at the point of the all-time high of Bitcoin, which is below $120,000, there is only a 45% probability, which means that the expectations are low in the near-to-medium term.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $88,708.51, up 1.44% in the last 24 hours. Its 24-hour volume is $20.6 billion with a market cap of $1.77 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.
The reason traders are becoming conservative
This skepticism is based on the poor performance of Bitcoin at the end of 2025, which ended in the negative despite high expectations at the beginning of the cycle.
Another potential cause of trader reluctance is that the four-year halving cycle followed by Bitcoin apparently failed, which was once used to predict significant bull and bear cycles by chartists.
As the traditional cycle is no longer relevant, traders are possibly reevaluating the behavior of Bitcoin in a shifting macro and regulatory landscape. In the absence of a clear historical roadmap, the market participants seem to be less price aggressive upside in the short-term.
This warning notwithstanding, there are wider macro expectations that are mixed. The U.S President Donald Trump is likely to name a new Federal Reserve chair in the next few weeks.
The markets expect the possibility of interest rate reductions, which may be favorable to risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies. The same expectations have already driven gold and silver to record highs in late 2025, despite crypto prices being mostly flat.
Analysts make contrasting, optimistic market bets
Although Polymarket indicates the sentiment of traders, the institutional analysts are still indicating possibilities of higher gains in 2026. Prior to this, some companies, including Standard Chartered, Strategy, and Bernstein, have predicted that Bitcoin will hit $150,000 in 2024, and Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee has even suggested higher levels of $200,000 to 250,000 in the same year should everything go well.
Meanwhile, the future US legislation, such as the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, may offer much-needed regulatory clarity, which may speed up institutional adoption.
Recent on-chain information also provides additional background. As per analysis provided by DeFiOasis, Polymarket profits are extremely concentrated, with less than 0.04% of wallets having over 70% of realized profits, and approximately 70% of users suffer losses.
— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) December 29, 2025在超过 170 万个 Polymarket 全体交易地址中，获得已实现盈利的地址占比接近 30%；反过来说，~70% 的交易地址已实现亏损
一个更为扎心的现实是，不到 0.04% 的地址获得了超过 70% 的总已实现盈利，这些顶级地址累计已实现盈利高达 37 亿美元
绝大多数能够实现盈利的交易地址的盈利区间是 0 – 1,000… pic.twitter.com/jAj3SXsxVO
This asymmetry underscores the fact that prediction markets tend to represent the opinion of a small, highly informed segment of the population instead of popular opinion.
All in all, Polymarket data indicates that while some traders anticipate an increase in Bitcoin, they are however not convinced that a significant breakout will occur prior to 2027.
By the year 2026, the disparity between market-based probabilities and analyst forecasts can be one of the most monitored indicators in the crypto space.
Also Read: Bitcoin Q4 Ends in Red with 23% Decline Despite Q2-Q3 Surge
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