EURUSD Price Forecast 2025, 2030 and 2040

Current EURUSD Price & Performance

As of early November 2025, EUR/USD is in the mid-1.15 range (around $1.15 per €1). This is a three month low after some strength in the US dollar. The euro has declining series recently partly as the dollar is strong again, down from levels near $1.18 level in the early fall.

Nevertheless, the euro has performed very well so far this year. Year-to-date, EUR/USD is up about 11% (meaning the euro is about 11% higher against the dollar from the beginning of 2025). Year-over-year, the pair is about 5 to 6% higher than a year ago (contrast that with a massive bounce off the multi-decade lows of 2022). In fact, since the 20 years low below the parity (~$0.96) level seen during the 2022 energy crisis, the euro has bounced a greater than 20% from those levels.

**Figure 1: EUR/USD Price Trend – Early November 2025** *(Source: Tradingview, November 2025)*

Overall, volatility in EUR/USD in 2025 has been moderate. The range in rates in EUR/USD extends from circa $1.01 (in early 2025) to levels near $1.18 by the mid-year mark. The rallies in the rate of EUR/USD in the first half of 2025 were the result of continued positive Eurozone data and expectations of looser US monetary policy, which tended to push EUR/USD levels to nearly 1.1829 before the end of June.

However, during the second half of the year, the rates have consolidated and drifted lower. By October and in early November, the rates in EUR/USD had seen their first monthly declined in three months, seeing the strength of the dollar.

At the writing of this, the quotes in EUR/USD were back in the mid 1.15 range, or around 1.5% lower than one month ago. The US dollar index (DXY) has risen to a multi-month high (~99.8) signaling the strength of the dollar, too. Overall, the current EUR/USD level seems to reflect a market, which is balancing Fed and ECB signals, where the euro Forex market is giving up some ground, but still seems higher than one year ago.

Historical EURUSD Data Analysis

**Figure 2: Historical EUR/USD exchange rate chart 1999-2025）***(Source: Tradingview, November 2025)*

The historical price action of the euro vs the US dollar shows clear cyclical patterns of highs and lows over the long run. The euro first came to market in 1999 priced at approximately US$1.17. Initially the euro weakened to a record low of 0.8228 in 2000 reflecting early fear that the euro was a flawed currency, the US economy showed greater growth.

From 2002 to 2008, the euro (EUR/USD) mounted a strong rally as the dollar weakened and Europe’s economy was growing. The price action picked at an all-time height of 1.6039 in July 2008 before reversing sharply lower as a result of the 2008 financial crisis..

The euro trend has been downward since the financial crisis. The Euro zone debt crisis (around 2010 – 2012) and years of quantitative, easing by the print Central Bank (ECB) had the euro trapped between around 1.05 and 1.20 (litefinancing.org). For a brief period in 2017 to 2018, the euro had a small rally spiking highs of over 1.25 before again reversing lower. The pandemic of 2020 saw the rally to close to 1.23 before closing the year slightly under par ~0.96 due to the rapid rise of fed funds rate in the US and the energy crisis in Europe increasing the dollars safe haven bias in 2022. (Investopedia.com)

Starting late in 2022, EUR/USD has been on a steady increased towards higher end with trading above the 1.05 to 1.10 range through 2023 to 2024, where prices are near the peak being around the 1.1 range as of mid 2025 (litefinance.org). As of late 2025, the price of EUR/USD has been trading around the 1.15 mark, showing good resilience to buy pressure and movement despite strong increases in the strength of late.

The price action of EUR/USD over the last two decades from lows of around 0.82 to highs upwards of 1.60 shows it is a cyclical market, with long-term trends around the “equilibrium” price, however, the price action is driven a function of macro-economics, monetary policy, differences and risk sentiment rather than that of a single directional move.

Key Macroeconomics Factors for EURUSD

The EUR/USD exchange rate is determined by relative changes in monetary policy, inflation, growth, and risk appetite levels in the US and the Eurozone.

Interest Rate Differentials
The differential between the US and ECB’s interest rates is the most important determinant. Increased US interest rate rates lead to a stronger dollar while more buoyant euros zone rates lead to a stronger euro. US expectations of Fed cuts against ECB stability support a higher EUR/USD.
Inflation and Growth
Inflation rose but fell in expectation as a result of increased interest rate expectations, spending on goods and services and supply constraints in the air freight market, leading to a Fed policy of a tighter monetary regime. Inflation in the US. (approximately 3%) is above the ECB target of 2% which leads to Fed monetary policy remaining tight and restrictive. Growth in the euro zone is low (about 0.2% Q3 2025) with the US economy revealing a mixed rate of growth despite robust growth figures earlier from the service sector sustaining near term dollar strength for the moment.
Fiscal & Policy Factors
Events such as disputes over budget proposals, political discontent in the US may lead to increased volatility. Current issues of a US government shut down. (now occurring due to no approved budget approximately 2025) increases in uncertainty in the near term (reuters.com)
Trade and Risk Sentiment
The Eurozones trade surplus is a strong support for the euro in the longer-term. The US trade deficit is a cause of weakness in a dollar exchange rate. (exchangerates.org.uk). However, during risk aversion periods (which occurred in wars, depression, etc.) the flows of international funds to safe havens are for the dollar, while the improved international risk sentiment increases the average EUR/USD (reuters.com).

EURUSD Macroeconomic Factors – November 2025

The Euro stays weak near 1.1480, pressured by risk aversion and a stronger US Dollar as global equities fall. The US government shutdown, now in its fifth week, adds to market anxiety and boosts demand for safe-haven assets.

In Europe, deflationary pressure exists – Eurozone PPI declined 0.1% in October, a second consecutive monthly decline, however activity in services improved (PM1 53.0, Germany PMI 54.6). The mix of data suggests the industrial sector is weak, however there is continue resilience from services, suggesting the ECB should remain cautious.

In the US, focus falls upon ADP Employment Report (forecasts +25K jobs) and ISM Services PMI (expected 50.8). A soft jobs print would weaken the Dollar slightly, but the overall tone suggests USD strength on the tone from the Fed and continuing risk aversion.

Therefore, EURUSD likely to sit in a 1.1450 – 1.1600 range with focus on the downside unless some poor US data emerges or sentiments in regard of risk improve.

EURUSD Technical Analysis and Live Chart

**Figure 3: EURUSD Daily Chart – Technical Structure as of November 5, 2025** *(Source: Tradingview, November 5 2025)*

As of November 5, 2025, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1488 and it’s currently in a clearly bearish sentiment structure in the short term as part of a consolidation phase. The daily chart shows a regularity in the market concerning lower highs and lower lows, showing clearly that sellers are on top of the market at this stage.

In the short term, the pea has two main resistance zone to deal with. The first resistance zone lies between 1.1550 and 1.1571, corresponding to the swing high of late October. This zone will probably be the first ceiling level of any recovery effort, which short-term traders may watch out for exhaustion or rejection signals. The second resistance zone above that will is situated between the level levels of 1.1625 – 1.1650, which correspond to previous failed breakout level levels in their own right of mid-September in the present. It would take a convincing close above a daily level of 1.1650 to confirm a bullish rebound for medium term.

On the downside, the support zone of importance is located between 1.1364 and 1.1395 which is the noted in yellow on the chart. This zone has been a very strong support area for a number of occasions since July and continues to be the zone of importance for buyers to defend. A brick below the level of 1.1360 could leave further weakness again, possibly continue with the down phase towards fresh yearly lows.

From a structural point of view, the likely outcome in the next number of sessions will be a technical bounce in the EUR/USD, possibly testing Resistance Zone 1 and possible Resistance Zone 2 as well, before resuming the overall downtrend. The price is still well capped below 1.1650 and this means that the outlook in a short term must remain bearish. Only close above that record on the market would give the signs for the long-term participants, indicating that there is a change of sentiment and the phase of recovery, which will then follow.

Therefore, the outlook presently will remain negative in a short term while the price is below 1.1650, while the support area of 1.13602 – 1.1400 is the vital zone of support which may succeed in getting buying demand back into play.

Most forecasters agree that the euro should strengthen somewhat against the US dollar through late 2025 as US economic growth slows, with the Federal Reserve gradually changing its stance toward cuts in interest rate rates. Goldman Sachs maintain a 12 month forecast of 1.20, citing “ persistent dollar weakness amid fading US performance” (capital.com) UBS Has similarly raise its end of 2025 forecast to 1.21, calling the euro “ the default alternative” for investors reducing the exposure to the dollar (capital.com).

J.P.Morgan would see 1.22 by March 2026, driven by the stacker growth of the US economy, together with a greater fiscal strength of Germany (capital.com). Some caution is exhibited by Trading Economics, expecting 1.15 and Wells Fargo perceives a range of 1.05 to 1.17 (naga.com).A Traders’ Union model would mean EUR/USD trade between 1.093 to 1.138 (tradersunion.com) and MUFG sees one . two zero by the fourth quarter of 2025 (mufgresearch.com). Altogether, the forecast average 1.18 to 1.20 which implies a modest euro increase of 3 to 6% if the Fed decreases rates and growth rates in the Eurozone do not weaken seriously.

In 2030, however, by forecast become a little scattered. WalletInvestor has EUR/USD at 1.21 to 1.22 (litefinance.org.), saying that the euro is to strengthen only moderately. Nordea Bank in a bullish analysis in 2021 saw 1.50 to 1.60 if increasing US fiscal imbalances and excessive currencies weaken the US dollar (exchangerates.org.uk). Traders’ Union puts the EUR/USD at 1.10, saying, however, that Euros zone stagnation might place a cap on its appreciation. The bulk of forecast move from 1.20 to 1.25, assuming stable growth and moderate inflation (capital.com; litefinance.org)

By 2040, however, forecasts become very indefinite and far from being particular (litefinance.org). Most savants agree that EUR/USD would remain in its normal historical trading patterns close to 1.20 to 1.30 governed by the international purchasing-power standard. A stronger European economy caused by new discoveries or the green revolution could take bounds higher toward 1.40 to 1.50. If the US continues with its normal patterns of aggression, particularly through its fiscal management, or the growth in the US population numbers, the rates could quickly be pulled below 0.90 to 1.00 (exchangerates.org.uk).

In summary, for 2025, 2030 and 2040, the trend is toward euro strength. The change is likely to be imperfect and gradual, but it will gain. The consensus places it at about 1.18 to 1.20 by 2025, 1.20 – 1.30 by 2040. Gradually it would appear that the struggles between the fiscal pressures in the US and the innate strength of Europe will determine whether the euro becomes stabilized or varies gradually toward some higher limit.

Best Time to Trade EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair trades for 24 hour periods each trading day of the week, but not all times of the day are conductive to trading in the same degree of quality. The optimal times for trading are when market activity and liquidity are at their highest which will occur mainly during the time periods of greatest overlap of such trading regions as London and New York, when both areas are in full trading mode.

During the overlap period London-New York (approximately 1:00 PM to 5:00 PM GMT or 8:00 AM to 12:00PM EST), the market is most liquid and active. It is at that time that both major financial centers are open and when spreads are narrow dictions as well as when major forms of news will employ the strongest market reactions. The most important US economic news, like the Non-Farm Payroll and CPI reports at 8:30 AM ET usually creates major volatility in EUR/USD. There is frequently a series of major breakouts during the trades of the day occurring in that overlap period.

The European trading period (7:00 AM – 4:00 PM GMT) is also of high activity character, notably in daylight hours after the London session occurs, so that the markets will react to overnight developments and or economic news out of Europe. Particularly for those strategies that deal with euros, like trades reacting to news concerning ECB announcements or German economic statistics, this will frequently be the most relevant time.

The US session remains active in character during the early afternoon periods (until around 5:00 PM GMT). Thereafter there is usually a gradual decline in the liquidity and momentum of the markets.

In contrast to that, the Asian trading session (5:00 PM – 11:00 PM GMT) will tend to be quiet in the EUR/USD trading, most European and American banks will not be open and trading, and price changes tend to be comparatively slower and smaller in range unless the time between such banks is disturbed by a major geopolitical or a major event having to do with some central banks, Many traders, actively avoid trading in that timeframe on the account of the thin liquidity and lack of advances in trends.

Expert Consensus: Bullish or Bearish Sentiment

For the near term, sentiment stay slightly bearish or cautious, lots of traders, betting euro stays under pressure due to a stronger US dollar. Retail positioning data shows about 60% short of EUR/USD (capital.com), which signifies weakness of momentum and lack of follow-through for Euro rallies. The Fed’s hawkish tone as well as growth in Europe being slow is cited as reasons for subdued euros sentiment (Investing.com)

In the medium to longer term (6 to 12 months+) however, the outlook of most banks or strategists is bullish. Major institutions.( Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, UBS) forecast EUR/USD in range of 1.18 – 1.25 by late 2025 (capital.com), expecting dollar to weaken due to slowing growth in US and Fed cutting rates. These favors view with structural aspects US fiscal deficits, lessening rate differentials, global diversification away from the dollar.

In all, sentiment is short-term bearish, but medium term bullish. Analysts generally expect EUR/USD to stabilize near prison levels, when dollar strength fades, and that recovery gradually takes place. In summary: cautious now, optimistic afterward.

Trading Strategies for the EUR/USD Pair

Trading in EUR/USD yields abundant opportunities since it has a vast amount of liquidity and flows constantly. In the paragraphs below is the list of some of the best methods that traders apply in general market conditions.

Trend trading: Trend traders look for predominant direction of a trend either up or down. Traders buy in uptrends and sell in downtrends. Trend traders, utilize trendlines, 50- and 200-day moving averages and the ADX (Average Directional Movement) indicator. Thus, in the downtrend as in late 2012 traders sell rallies and buy in for moving average crossover situations or resistance produced by trendlines. Trailing stops aid in taking profits in trending situations.
Range trading: Traders purchase near support and sell new resistance in transitioning conditions in the EUR/USD. Momentum oscillator, such as the RSI or Stochastics are then utilized in confirming that the market is indeed overbought (at the highs) or oversold (at the lows). An example will be if the currency pair was range bound between prices at 1.10 and 1.12, traders would buy the low prices around 1.10 using stops just below. Sell the high prices near 1.12. The ability to profit in this area of trading is closely tied to the discipline of the trader or the need for good stops should the market breakout at some point.
Breakout trading: Breakouts occur sometimes after periods of consolidation. Traders look for triangle or channel patterns, and the resistance level is broken, buy on strength. If breakout occurs on currencies selling at support. An example would be if the price is broken above the area of 1.1700 this has the potential for being positive for a long position in the EUR/USD mainly if coupled with good volume or corroborating news. Stops must be placed just inside broken area to safeguard from false breakouts.
Scalping and day trading: The very tight spreads abundant in EUR/USD lend themselves very well to short-term trading actions. This method allows of short selling, sometimes utilizing 1 to 5 minute charts with the want to effect small profits or moves by volatility around periods of market conditions yielding, great liquidity. The periods are most often very common to effect small profits like this but required the tremendous precision and discipline from the trader to participate.

In conclusion, EUR/USD offers possibilities for each type of style from trend followers to intraday scalpers. The most successful traders are those who mix methods, such as those waiting for big trends in broadest situations and news events or breakout patterns to occur. There are no perfect methods in trading finance, but consistency of ideas discipline and knowledge of risk are what represent the values of adapt and prosper in this highly traded forex pair.

Is EUR/USD a Good Long-Term Investment?

For most investors, EUR/USD must not be viewed as a long-term investment in a conventional sense, but a relative value trade or diversification vehicle. Unlike stocks or bonds, currency pairs do not, in and of themselves, create income or interest. Income is derived only from changes in the exchange rate or the interest differential (the “carry”) between the two currencies themselves.

Historical behavior
Over longer periods, EUR/USD has shown varying behavior, but tends to mean revert. An investor who had bought euros at about $1.20 and was holding until 2020 would have experienced very little change in the price thereof. However, an investor buying at substantially lower levels than that, such as about $0.5 in 2000 would have been very much ahead on nominal dollar basis. The implication is clear – timing is very important, since currencies are cyclical, not permanent appreciating assets.
Interest Rates Differential (Carry)
At present (late 2025) US interest rates are about 3.7 to 4% in the US, whilst those in the Eurozone are near 2%. Thus, long EUR/USD entails, and negative yield on the currency pair, since the investor is effectively paying the difference in interest rates. This can put a damper on long-term returns unless the policy flags upside down, and the interest rates become inverted.
Diversification and Hedging Value
For dollar investors, anyhow, a certain percentage of euro exposure are to be considered a hedge against long-term dollar weakness or fiscal problems in the US. The euro is the second largest reserve currency worldwide and has also been noted for maintaining its purchasing power relative to the dollar on the longer multi-decade horizons.
Risk and Opportunity Cost
EUR/USD can change as much as 15 to 25% in a few years time. Meanwhile, capital tied in the currency exchange trades does not create compound growth of the equity type experience. Unless the investor has a very strong macro view., i.e., if he believes there will be persistent dollar weakness in the future, the risk was specific get to be rather mediocre.
Conclusion
EUR/USD it’s not a “growth asset”, but can have its use as a tool for hedge or tactical positioning. It is only attractive in investors if by literal vision of all time, it is strongly believed that economic potential to be overwhelmingly in favor of the basis dollar or euro economy. Keep leverage low, utilize as balance tool, concentrate and note: no compounding of currencies but competition there.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is EUR/USD?

EUR/USD represents the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar, it shows how many dollars a euro can buy. It is the most traded currency pair in the world which is often said to be a barometer of the global strength of the economy between Europe and the United States.

Why is EUR/USD falling recently?

The pair has recently traded towards 1.1480 after risk aversion in the market and a stronger US dollar. Investors are buying safe haven assets while global stock selloffs occur and with the lengthening shutdown of the US government, whilst on the other hand, there are weaker Eurozone producer prices (deflation signals) and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve have increased the strength of the USD.

What is the interim sentiment on EUR/USD?

The short term sentiment is one of bearishness as most traders see the euro remaining under the pressure from risk-off flows and firm US yields, however, medium term sentiment is cautiously bullish, with major banks (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, UBS) forecasting EUR/USD to be between the 1.18 to 1. 25 mark by late 2025, as the Fed begins to gradually pivot into actual cuts.

By how many pips does EUR/USD move daily?

On average, EUR/USD moves by about 50 to 80 pips a day in a normal market conditions. However, during major news events like US non-farm payroll (NFP) or ECB rate decisions, the intraday range can move by 100 to 150 pips, creating strong, short-term trading opportunities.

Why is the EUR/USD the most traded pair?

Because it compasses the two largest economies in the world, which are the US and the euros zone and both currencies are the most dominant in the world for trade and finance. It provides deep liquidity, tight spreads and steady volatility in the markets which make it the preferred vehicle for institutional investors, hedge funds, and retail traders alike.

When is the best time to trade EUR/USD?

The greatest volume of trade comes in the London – New York overlap, which is also the most liquid period of the day. It is the time when both major financial centers are open and the major Eurozone data and US data is released which often leads to a greatest price moves of the day.