Cardano Holders Refuse to Sell as On-Chain Data Validate Strong Bullish Wave

Crypto investment data analytics platform Alphractal has presented its latest Cardano-focused on-chain risk analysis, which highlights an unwavering commitment amongst ADA token holders to the preservation of their ADA holdings despite market uncertainty.

In an X post, Alphractal disclosed that ADA investors, particularly long-term holders, have left their tokens untouched. These market participants have been in the accumulation phase since 2021, with data revealing limited token distribution recorded thus far.

According to Alphractal, their position suggests unshaken trust in the Cardano network and a bullish expectation for larger price movement. On the other hand, short-term holders are displaying a more neutral outlook, although a mild accumulation trend was recently recorded.

During the 2021 marking cycle, these short-term holders participated in aggressive sales following ADA’s price pump; however, this pattern has yet to be observed in the 2025 market cycle, further indicating a decline in selling pressure.

On-chain metrics mildly validate bull rally

A further analysis conducted by Alphractal revealed, in-depth, the present state of the Cardano network. A key metric known as the market temperature, a composite indicator, was achieved from the combination of the MVRV Z-Score, the Realized Value to Transaction (RVT), and the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL).

Notably, the MVRV Z, RVT, and NUPL are each up by 40%, 30% and 30% respectively. It bears mentioning that higher values signal a hot market, suggesting that an asset is overbought, while lower values signal a cold market, indicating that an asset is oversold.

While higher values hint at a potential top, low values point to a possible accumulation opportunity.

Another notable metric analyzed was the adjusted Sharpe ratio, a metric designed to measure risk-adjusted return through the division of annualized return and annualized volatility over a 364-day rolling window.

Per Alphractal’s chart, ADA’s adjusted Sharpe Ratio sits above 2, and according to historically observed patterns, a move toward 2 is often preceded by a parabolic price rally.

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