Cardano Whales Add 100M ADA While Long-Term Holder Selling Collapses 99% as Historically Bullish Metric Reappears

Cardano is approaching a critical inflection point as a historically bullish technical signal resurfaces, raising the prospect of a potential 32% rally if supporting conditions align.

ADA remains under pressure following recent losses, but the underlying market structure mirrors a setup that previously signaled the exhaustion of selling momentum.

Cardano is forming a bullish divergence on the daily chart, where price prints a lower low while the Relative Strength Index trends higher. This signal indicates weakening downside momentum and has proven meaningful for ADA in the past.

Between early November and late December 2025, a similar divergence preceded a 32% advance. A comparable structure is developing again, contingent on price holding above the $0.3 support zone.

What differentiates this setup is the behavior of whales. Wallets holding between one million and ten million ADA have accumulated since January 12, increasing their combined balances by roughly 100 million ADA in less than two weeks.

At current prices, this represents more than $36 million in added exposure, suggesting that whales are positioning ahead of a potential momentum shift rather than reacting to one.

Meanwhile, spent-coin activity from wallets holding ADA for 6 to 12 months has collapsed by more than 99%, reaching a monthly low. This indicates firm conviction and limited selling pressure from investors, typically associated with market stability.

In contrast, short-term holders have become far more active, with spent-coin activity among 30- to 60-day holders jumping by over 300%. This imbalance supports the downside but also introduces supply risk if the price rebounds.

For the bullish case to gain traction, key technical levels must be reclaimed. The $0.41 area, which aligns with the 50-day exponential moving average, is the first significant hurdle. A sustained move above that level would open the path toward $0.43 and potentially $0.48 near the 200-day EMA.

In support, Chaikin Money Flow remains positive and trending higher, signaling ongoing capital inflows even as price drifts lower.

However, Santiment revealed that a recent spike in bullish social sentiment following Charles Hoskinson’s high-profile interview was quickly followed by a price drop, highlighting the risk of crowd-driven optimism.

CoinMarketCap data shows ADA down 7.98% over the past 24 hours to $0.27, extending a 21.06% weekly decline. Whether Cardano can repeat history depends on its ability to maintain support near $0.36 and translate technical promise into sustained momentum.