It’s finally here. The date when Cardano becomes a fully functioning smart contract platform. In this article, we’ll talk about the upcoming Alonzo mainnet heart fork.

First, we’ll talk about the exact date when the main net goes live, and then we’ll look at some possible price scenarios for the next few weeks.

Of course, none of this is financial advice, and you should only invest money that you can afford to lose.

When Is The Exact Date For Alonzo?

Recently Irish cape made the announcement in their Goguen Alonzo development update. So let’s share the projected date for the mainnet hard-fought when we deploy pluto’s capability on Cardano.

They say:

“Once we’ve hard fought the test net it gives us this period of stability where we can test it and also our exchanges can test it. As our exchanges are testing it. We’ll have our smart contract exercises running on it. And our various community members also using it. And then we have to make sure that we’re ready. And we’ll submit a proposal for our mainnet Hard Fork and we will also package it up with our police application back end. So that we can have a complete smart contract release ready for people to use our full smart contract toolbox, ready for the Alonzo Hard Fork and this is the date that we’re aiming. At monday september 12th.”

Monday, September the 12th. That’s what they said. That’s when the Alonzo main net finally goes live.

Scenarios

Now I see two possible scenarios here;

One is that this is a kind of buy the hype sell-the-new scenario where the price will skyrocket until September 12th or until like just a day or two before that. And then after that, it will get a correction. It will come down a bit before all those smart contracts are finally running on top of it and finally using Cardano. So this is the first scenario.

The second is that it will stay calm for a little longer, so it will stay at this level where it is now. So the price will stay calm there. And then it will really take off after the maintenance has launched.

Personally, I think the first scenario is more likely to happen because this usually happens with Hard Forks or with big events. So we’ll look at two other Hard Forks.

One is the Mary Hard Fork that has happened on Cardano a few months ago, and then we’ll also look at the Alonzo Hard Fork that has just happened on Ethereum a few days ago.

So we’ll compare those two, and we’ll see what could happen with the price in the next few weeks.

Price Scenarios

Mary Hard Fork scenario(8.00 USD)

First, look at the Mary Hard Fork, which was on March 1st. All right here we have it march 1st, and the price there was at about 1.30 us dollars. So the highest it went was almost 1.50- 1.49 usd. And that was on February 27th.

So that was two days before that, and that was the highest it went. So now we are currently one month before the Alonzo main net Hard Fork.

Let’s go one month back and look at what happened there. Look at February 1st. This candle started at 33 cents. In that month prior to that Hard Fork, it did a 4x of the price.

It went from about 33 cents up to 1.49 us dollars, almost 1.50 us dollars. So that’s a pretty insane increase. It was more than a 4x, but what you can see on the actual date of the Hard Fork, it did a bit of a correction.

And then, even after that, it did a correction, and it went sideways for quite a bit until it eventually went higher in May. İt started in April, but that was about one and a half months later.

So that’s a probable scenario for this Hard Fork as well, in my opinion. I’m not sure if we will also have that 4x. That would be pretty insane. We would be at over eight dollars if that was the same scenario. Pretty crazy, in my opinion. İt is possible.

So also, if we look at the market caps, so Cardano is now at number four. So İt has just overtaken tether with a market cap of 69 billion, almost 70 billion.

So a 4x from here would bring it up to about 280 billion. That wouldn’t even make it number two. İt wouldn’t even overtake the Ethereum with that.

So that is possible. I’m not sure if it really will happen. I see what I could see more realistically is something around three dollars. So that would be a bit over the last all-time high of 2.40 us dollars.

But if the same happens as it did before the Mary Hard Fork, that would bring us to over eight dollars. Pretty crazy.

Ethereum Hard Fork Scenario ( 4.00 USD)

Another Hard Fork, and that has just happened recently on the Ethereum. And that is the Alonzo Hard Fork that has happened on August 5th. Now august 5th.

Let’s look at that that was here, so the price started around 2800 usd dollars for Ethereum that day. And what’s interesting here is it isn’t the exact same scenario that Cardano had before the Mary Hard Fork.

So you can see if we go a month back, so that would be July 5th. You can see that it wasn’t that much lower it was at 2.300 us dollars. And then it actually had a correction before it went higher.

And that mainly had to do with the market scenario overall. So the market was still in a bit of a sideways or even a downtrend, and then on July 21st, that’s when the whole market started to pick up again. And the Ethereum just didn’t start from there.

This is a bit of a different scenario. So it actually the uptrend only started about two and a half weeks before the actual Hard Fork took place. But the interesting thing is that it didn’t stop on august 5th. But it just kept going higher.

So that’s another probable scenario that will just have like a ladder-like this Ethereum movement. It does look a bit different from Cardano right now. But that’s another possible scenario. So it might go sideways from now for a little bit, and then it will just go up and up and up.

And that was from 1791 us dollars. And it went up to we’re now at the high right now at about 3 300 us dollars. So that would be about a 2x from that bottom here.

So even if we took that as a possible scenario. We would be at over four dollars by the time the main net goes live.

Still pretty crazy in my mind because I had something like three dollars in my mind, but we’ll see what happens. That would be really exciting definitely.

Cardano Chart

If we’ll go back to the Cardano chart. You can see it looks a bit different. It does look a bit different from the Ethereum chart. You can also see that ladder that actually started on July 21st as well.

And you can see that ladder going upwards, but here we’ve really got a bit of that blow-off top, you could almost say. And it’s been really blowing up since it broke through those moving averages.

So we’ll see I’m not sure if it will increase like that for the next month. That would be a bit unhealthy. It’s better for it to go up and then take a bit of a break, you know, go sideways for a little bit and then go higher.

I could see it taking a break for a day or two now that the announcement is out, but after that, I’m pretty sure that will go higher until the mainnet is finally live. We’ll see how high it could go.

These are the possible scenarios that I see. I’m excited to see what will happen just before the main net and once the main net is live.

Source: Coinmonks - Frederick Irwin
https://medium.com/coinmonks/cardanos-next-30-days-4x-scenarios-f1c150cd06d8