Cardano Faces Triangle Breakdown Ahead of Crucial ADA ETF Deadline

• Cardano (ADA) is reported to have completed a triangle pattern on the daily price chart; however, a golden cross has also been formed on another timeframe. 
• Investors are keenly following the SEC’s decision on the ADA ETF application as the deadline approaches. 

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Cardano (ADA) has recorded a 2% decline on the 24-hour price chart, moving from $0.77 to $0.75 within the period. According to market data, the asset has managed to “print” gains across three of the four remaining major trading sessions, rising by 0.15% in the last seven days, 4.2% in the last 30 days, and 13% in the last 90 days.

Commenting on the overall market behaviour, analysts have observed that the current market trend could significantly change as a decision deadline on the spot ADA Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) filed by Grayscale Investment fast approaches.

As disclosed in our previous news article, the SEC extended the earlier deadline by 45 days from April 14 to May 29 in a March 11 filing.

In a recent update, CNF highlighted that the third deadline for the Grayscale Cardano Trust is currently positioned around August 24, 2025. Meanwhile, the XRP ETF filed by Grayscale could have its decision made by October 18.

Currently, uncertainty exists in the market as traders anticipate an explosive run in the next few days. However, the SEC has been predicted to extend the deadline again after delaying the request of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) to trade Fidelity Solana Fund shares by 45 days.

In the midst of that, ADA is already reported to be forming a triangle pattern on the daily price chart. Looking into this, we found that the asset recorded lower highs on March 3, May 12, and May 23, leading to declining trendlines. Also, the lows recorded on April 9, May 6, and May 25 trading periods were reported to have completed the triangle pattern after forming a support trendline.

Meanwhile, analysts have observed that there is an incoming supply spike that could disrupt the growth. However, this could also be absorbed by the movement of the 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near the support trendline. Adding to this, a golden cross is reported to be forming between the 50- and 200-day EMAs, suggesting the possibility of a bullish reversal.

More About Cardano’s (ADA) Price Move

Looking into other key indicators, we found that there is a mixed reaction within the market as far as the technical charts and the market sentiment are concerned.

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), for instance, indicates that there is a fading momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which also reads at 50, shows that ADA might have lost its steam and could break down below the 200-day EMA at $0.72. Falling below this level could also send the price to the $0.64 support level.

Currently, money seems to be flowing into the Cardano derivatives as Coinglass data shows a 4% surge in Open Interest (OI) to $945 million. However, the OI-weighted funding rate has declined from 0.0081% to 0.0013% in just a day. According to experts, this situation suggests that there is a loss of optimism and an increasing risk of a triangle breakdown.

Even so, analysts believe that ADA could be 50% cheaper in the medium term. In the long term, the asset has been tipped to reach $5, as indicated in our recent blog post. Meanwhile, analyst Dan Gambardello has predicted that the potential approval of the ADA ETF could fuel the price to $10, as also mentioned in our previous news.

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