Bloomberg analysts revise ETF approval odds to '90% or higher' as SEC requests amended filings

Bloomberg analysts have sharply increased the likelihood of U.S. regulators approving a new wave of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds, pointing to a friendlier stance from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Bloomberg senior ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart said on June 20 that they now see a “90% or higher” chance that a broad range of crypto ETFs will win regulatory approval.

Altcoin funds

The revised forecast follows what the pair described as constructive discussions between the SEC and asset managers seeking to expand beyond Bitcoin.

They also indicated that the SEC likely considers cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano to be commodities, a classification that generally places them outside the commission’s direct oversight as securities.

The surge in optimism comes after the SEC recently asked several issuers pursuing spot Solana ETFs to update their filings with clearer details on in-kind redemptions and whether staking would be allowed.

The move prompted some firms that had yet to file applications for Solana ETFs to fast-track their submissions last week.

The requested changes, submitted in mid-June, signal that the SEC is actively reviewing the structure and mechanics of these funds, further supporting expectations of eventual approval. The regulator intends to respond within 30 days, raising expectations of approval within the next four to five weeks.

ETF performance

Crypto ETFs are expected to become a mainstay of the financial industry after spot Bitcoin ETFs set records for capital inflows.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, trading under the ticker IBIT, surpassed $70 billion in assets earlier this month, less than a year after its launch. The product’s consistent daily inflows have made it one of the fastest-growing ETFs in U.S. history.

Despite this, similar products tracking Ethereum have faced slower uptake. While Ether ETFs launched last July, blockchain analytics show many investors remain at a loss compared to their entry price.

With momentum building, fund issuers including Franklin Templeton have filed proposals for ETFs tied to other crypto assets like XRP and Solana. These applications are now open for public feedback as the SEC weighs its next moves.

Though Balchunas and Seyffart expect approvals, they cautioned that final green lights and market debuts could still be several months away.

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