Bitcoin Recovery Picks Up, But Market Remains Cautious: Glassnode

Key Highlights

Glassnode reports Bitcoin (BTC) is trading cautiously between $80K–$95K, showing the market is cautious but stabilizing.
Glassnode notes RSI is rebounding, signaling a “renewed build-up in upside momentum.”
US spot ETFs are seeing renewed inflows of $324 million, reflecting growing institutional interest.

Bitcoin (BTC) entered 2026 cautiously, attempting to stabilize after a sharp pullback in Q4 2025. According to data analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin is trading within a $80,000 to $95,000 zone, indicating a market that is transitioning from a recovery pattern to an uncertain pattern. On-chain and off-chain indicators show a mix of improving momentum, subdued inflows, and cautious institutional participation.

Glassnode’s Weekly Market Pulse notes that momentum conditions have begun to recover, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounding into the upper-neutral zone, signalling a “renewed build-up in upside momentum.”

Spot market activity shows reduced selling pressure. While spot volumes have increased slightly, liquidity is improving without signs of speculative frenzy. This suggests that investors are gradually rebuilding confidence, but the market remains cautious.

According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $93,490, marking a notable weekly gain of about 6.4%, which reflects growing short-term bullish sentiment in the market.

Derivatives and options markets

Derivatives markets are adjusting in a measured way. Futures open interest has edged higher, reflecting moderate growth in speculative activity. Funding rates have cooled, and perpetual futures have seen a shift to primarily buy-side dominance, which indicates the start of accumulation.

Options markets, however, have de-risked significantly. Open interest fell by more than 22%, while volatility spreads surged, indicating “elevated uncertainty and rising expectations for near-term volatility,” according to Glassnode. This suggests traders are cautious, preparing for potential price swings in the coming weeks.

Institutional flows and ETFs

Institutional demand is gradually starting to support Bitcoin. The US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a massive $697.1 million net inflow on Monday, January 5. BlackRock’s IBIT led the charge with a $372 million purchase. The volume of trades has increased by over 40% figures, marking the re-emergence of the conventional finance community.

According to Glassnode, the holders of the ETFs are now left with increased unrealized profits.

Despite this positive development, overall market inflows are limited. The fact is, while active trading of ETFs occurs, most BTC owners, excluding institutional investors, are cautious.

On-chain fundamentals and profitability

On-chain metrics display mixed trends. Active addresses increased by 6.9% to 665,112, and transfer volume escalated by 22.4% to $8.7 billion, reflecting enhanced activity. Fees are still low, and this reveals the absence of congestion on the network. Realized capital growth still appears negative, which indicates a net outflow of capital.

Profitability metrics are slowly recovering. The percentage of supply in profit increased to 68.4%, net unrealized losses fell, and realized loss-taking has declined, showing “a slow improvement in holder sentiment,” according to Glassnode.

Supply is still skewed toward short-term holders, keeping the market sensitive to sudden price moves.

According to Glassnode, BTC is presently ranging between key supports of $80,000 and resistances of $95,000. A breakout above the upper bound may provide a pathway into $100,000, while renewed selling pressure could see prices forced lower.

Monitoring capital flows and network activity closely is a suggestion to traders and analysts, as these indicators are more likely to drive Bitcoin’s next major move in early 2026.