Bitcoin Q4 Ends in Red with 23% Decline Despite Q2-Q3 Surge

Key Highlights

Bitcoin closed the final quarter of 2025 with a 23.07% decline, reversing much of the gains seen during the middle of the year.
The year-end slump contrasts with historically bullish fourth quarters, where average returns have typically trended higher.
Early 2026 data shows a recovery of 0.31% as the market attempts to stabilize following the recent double-digit sell-off.

Bitcoin fell short of expectations as 2025 came to a close. It ended the fourth quarter down in the red, despite a recovery earlier in the year. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin dropped 23.07% during Q4 2025.

The drop was largely driven by a decline in institutional demand and marked a sharp turn from the gains achieved in the second and third quarters. The performance in the last three months of 2025 contrasts with the beginning of the year. According to Coinglass, Bitcoin started 2025 with an 11.82 percent drop in Q1.

*Bitcoin Quarterly returns | Source:* *Coinglass*

However, Q2 showed recovery with a 29.74% increase, followed by a 6.31% rise in Q3. The year-end slump of 23.07% wiped out a major share of those mid-year gains. This highlights the volatility that continues to affect the cryptocurrency market.

Historical Q4 performance summary

Looking at historical data, Q4 has often been a time of great fluctuation for Bitcoin. For example, in 2023 and 2024, the fourth quarter saw gains of 56.9% and 47.73%, respectively.

In contrast, years like 2022 and 2018 saw a decline of 14.75% and 42.16% in Q4. The average return for the fourth quarter remains high at 77.07%. However, the 2025 results indicate that even in maturing markets, such declines are common.

Current Bitcoin market

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $87,841.62, showing a slight 24-hour decrease of 1.24%.

The market capitalization stands at $1.75 trillion with a 1.16% decline and 24-hour trading volume of approximately $26.92 billion. The circulating supply stands at 19.97 million BTC out of a maximum of 21 million.

Broader market outlook

The impact of Bitcoin’s Q4 close is already being felt as the market steps into 2026. The new year has begun positively with a slight increase of 0.31% in early Q1. Yet, the negative trend from the previous quarter indicates that the market is consolidating.

The year-end sell-off in 2025 could potentially have resulted from profit-taking after the rallies in Q2 and Q3, along with broader uncertainty in global financial markets regarding interest rates and regulatory changes.