Bitcoin Price Prediction: $50k or $250k? The Real Answer - CoinTrust

We are in a bull market. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are nearing their all time high. Bitcoin price is expected to update the all time high if the current momentum continues. Over the last year, Bitcoin has shown insane growth as the Bitcoin holders in profit reach an all-time high.

This bullish momentum signals Bitcoin’s further gain as the current price is apparently not the Bitcoin top, and it has a long way to go. Bulls and bitcoiners are now talking about medium‑term targets near $200,000. However, cycle specialists whisper about a return to $50,000 after a peak. However, crypto bears are preparing to open short positions as they expect the piece to take a major correction soon.

With social‑media trends, many investors are left with one question: which event will arrive first: $50,000 or $250,000?

Bitcoin Price Prediction of $250,000

Some of the more ambitious forecasts begin with the halving cycles that underpin Bitcoin’s supply curve. Every four years, the reward for mining new blocks is halved, and the most recent cut took place in April 2024. Historically, months after this event have brought large rallies, with peaks emerging roughly a year later. If history rhymes, that would place the next crest in late 2025 or early 2026 and would justify prices anywhere between $150,000 and $250,000.

Polymarket #Bitcoin 2025

📈 $130K @ 75% chances: Market says “very likely.” With little disagreement, there’s less incentive to trade, low volume.

🔥 $150K @ 44% chances: Big debate. Some think it’ll smash past, others think it won’t get close. Heavy trading as both sides bet. pic.twitter.com/WChc1oaG6k

— RM – ₿TC Technical Analysis / Investment services (@Web3012490u) August 11, 2025

Optimistic voices point to the growing list of high‑profile believers. Venture capitalist Tim Draper and Cardano co‑founder Charles Hoskinson have backed their bets that Bitcoin could change hands around a quarter‑million dollars by the end of 2025. Even the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart points to a bullish direction with insane price targets.

Bitcoin to $50,000: What are the odds?

Why would Bitcoin ever drop to $50,000? That level is close to long‑term support, yet reaching it would still mean a decline of about sixty percent from today’s price near $119,000. Such a drop would be steep. Past cycles experienced falls of seventy‑seven to eighty‑six percent after their peaks, although some think the next bear market could be milder.

What might set off a fall like that? A shift toward tighter monetary policy, a sudden shortage of liquidity or a severe regulatory backlash could undermine confidence. Pullbacks from exchange‑traded funds and a change in risk appetite would add to the selling. In that environment, Bitcoin could revisit the 200‑week average around $55,344, a deeper move would signal lowering institutional commitment.

A run to $250,000 would require a doubling, while a drop to $50,000 would mean the start of a long bear market. With the trend still up and institutions stepping up their involvement, fresh highs appear more likely in the near term.

The current Bitcoin cycle is not over yet. Bitcoin’s each cycle from profit start to profit end lasts around 40 weeks. However, this cycle has been going on for 29 weeks. Which means we still have 11 weeks of bullish gains ahead. However, reaching a price target of $250,000 in 11 weeks is an optimistic dream. 

Bitcoin price is insanely bullish, no doubt about it. However, if we compare the current price gain with the previous cycles, it is negligible. For example, in the first crypto cycle, the price gain was 9000%. Even if we consider the minimum price of the most recent price cycle of 2020-2021, the price moved 700%, from $8,600 to $68,700.

Cycle	Halving date	Base price (USD)	Peak date	Peak price (USD)	Gain %	Multiple
2012 → 2013	Nov 28, 2012	12.38	Nov 29, 2013	1,132	9,044%	91.44×
2016 → 2017	Jul 9, 2016	650.96	Dec 17, 2017	19,783.06	2,939%	30.39×
2020 → 2021	May 11, 2020	8,601.80	Nov 10, 2021	68,789	700%	8.00×
2024 → 2025	Apr 19–20, 2024	63,821	Aug 14, 2025	124,002.49	94%	1.94×

Which means, the price gain in each cycle lowered by around 70%. With that in mind, the current cycle should gain at least 197%, which means that Bitcoin price is expected to reach a high of $189,542 before it starts the capitulation.

Though it is hard to predict which comes first, the odds of Bitcoin price reaching $250,000 are higher. However, this target is likely to be achieved after many major corrections and it might take around 2-4 years to get there.