Analyst Outlines 2 Cardano Price Scenarios Targeting $7.7 and $9.7

Chris, co-founder of Cardano Ghost Fund, recently presented two possible price scenarios that ADA could take during the ongoing bull season, with targets of $7.77 and $9.71.

In a recent post on X, the Cardano bull noted that the latest assessment is just “for fun,” essentially emphasizing that investors should not construe it as investment advice. He noted that the first price scenario, recently conceived, is conservative and hinges on the general direction of the broader crypto market.

First Scenario: Cardano at $7.71

Notably, the global cryptocurrency market cap currently stands at $2.61 trillion, about $390 billion away from the peak valuation of $3 trillion in November 2021. The main reason behind the lower valuation despite Bitcoin (BTC) reaching new highs is due to altcoins not reclaiming their previous peaks.

For instance, Cardano (ADA), which changes hands at $0.5957,  is currently 80% down from its 2021 all-time high of $3.10. Some pundits expect ADA and other altcoins to reach new heights following the Bitcoin halving slated for this month. They believe the halving will usher in the much-needed altcoin season.

Should this occur and the broader crypto market records a massive uptick, Chris projects a minimal 2x increase in the current global crypto market cap to a range of $6 trillion to $7 trillion. The market veteran envisions a case where Cardano reclaims its peak dominance as the bull run matures.

#Cardano fam,

For fun, 2 price scenarios for $ADA this Bull cycle.

The 1st is conservative & based on some simple math:

This Bull even just a simple 2x or so of Total crypto MC will give us $6T-$7T. Accounting for historical $ADA.D highs of 4% & $ADA circulating supply at… https://t.co/LpxGccsIr1

— Chris O (@TheOCcryptobro) March 8, 2024

For context, ADA reached a peak market dominance of 4.47% in August 2021. Should Cardano recover a 4% dominance rate with the global market cap sitting at $6 trillion, it would boast a valuation of $240 billion. In addition, if the global crypto market cap stands at $7 trillion, ADA’s valuation would come in at $280 billion.

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With this figure, if Cardano’s supply of 36 billion tokens remains fairly stable, a $240 billion market cap would lead to a price of $6.6 per ADA. Moreover, if its valuation hits the $280 billion value, the value of one ADA would sit at $7.7. Chris noted that this represents his conservative price scenario.

Second Scenario: ADA at $9.71

In a more ambitious scenario, the pundit spotlighted a previous analysis he carried out on Cardano last July. This analysis assessed ADA’s possible price for this bull run based on three parameters: the ADA/BTC pair, Cardano’s dominance in the total crypto market, and a comparison of Ethereum’s (ETH) gain in the last cycle.

Based on the ADA/BTC pair, he noted that Cardano reached a high of 0.00006 sats in the ADA/BTC chart during the last two cycles. According to him, if ADA could recover this previous high against BTC, its price would reach $8.28 should Bitcoin clinch a price of $138K. 

Concerning the global crypto market cap, he stressed that ADA hit a peak dominance of 4.5% during the 2021 bull run. He stressed that if the global crypto market cap rises to $5.8 trillion during this bull run and ADA reclaims the 4.5% dominance, its price will soar to $7.45.

Regarding Ethereum’s gains in the last cycle, Chris pointed out that ETH soared 6,000% from its bottom to its peak price in the last market cycle. However, ADA saw a more impressive surge of 15,400%.

To keep things conservative, he placed ADA in a position where it replicates Ethereum’s 6,000% gain in this cycle and not its 15,400% surge. From ADA’s bottom of $0.22 for this cycle, a 6,000% rise would result in a price of $13.42.

Chris then compared these three prices: $8.28, $7.45, and $13.42. The average of these values stands at $9.71, with his prediction for ADA’s price ranging from $7.45 to $13.42. Meanwhile, Cardano currently trades for $0.5957, up 1.43%, and it looks to recover the $0.60 price territory.