Cardano on the Edge: Is a Breakout to $1 Finally Coming?

ADA Eyes Breakout: Cardano is holding strong above $0.70, forming bullish patterns and eyeing a push past the 200-day EMA and key resistance at $0.7351.
Rising Long Positions: Open interest in ADA futures has surged to $785M, with increasing long positions hinting at growing trader confidence despite a slightly negative funding rate.
$1 Target in Sight: A breakout above current resistance could send ADA toward $0.92 and potentially $1, but failure to hold support around $0.6272 could trigger a bearish reversal.

Cardano’s ($ADA) been holding its ground lately—and with Bitcoin back above $87K, things are heating up across the board. Over the last 24 hours, ADA climbed 1.79%, holding steady above that familiar $0.70 zone. It’s now trading around $0.7239, pushing out its second green candle in a row.

So yeah, optimism’s creeping back in. But is it enough to fuel a rally to that elusive $1 mark?

Signs of Life: Cardano’s Breakout Brewing?

Zooming in on the daily chart, ADA’s shaping up a classic rounding-bottom reversal. Sunday wrapped up with a morning-star pattern and a neat little 1.31% bounce. Momentum’s trickling in, and Monday followed through with another 1.58% bump.

But here’s the catch: that 200-day EMA is acting like a brick wall. Price keeps nudging it, but hasn’t punched through yet. And to complicate things, the 20-day and 200-day EMA are threatening a bearish crossover. Not ideal.

Still, if Cardano can ride this broader market wave and break through that 200-day line, it might just dodge that bearish setup altogether.

For now, it’s kinda stuck between support at $0.70 and resistance near the 61.8% Fib level at $0.7351. RSI’s hovering around neutral, which means momentum hasn’t picked a side yet.

🥳 Specific altcoins like Cardano are seeing high positive sentiment on social media. Aided by the fact that the SEC classified $ADA's use case as "smart contracts for government services", the altcoin's community has pushed up bullishness to its highest rate in over 4 months. pic.twitter.com/viUVgjYNAX
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 19, 2025

Futures Market Heating Up

Interesting bit—open interest in ADA futures just jumped to $785.9 million. That’s no small move. Plus, the long/short funding rate has evened out at 1.0396, showing bulls are getting more comfortable stepping back in.

That said, funding rates are still barely negative at -0.0029%. So while long positions are up, bulls aren’t charging full speed just yet.

So… $1 Incoming?

If ADA breaks above that $0.7351 resistance (the 61.8% Fib level), it’s got a shot at $0.9216—the 78.6% Fib and just a hop away from the $1 psychological line. That’s the level to watch.

But—and there’s always a but—if it slips and closes below $0.6272 (50% Fib), then we could be looking at a retest of the longer-term support around $0.5708. A breakdown here could drag the price down faster than bulls would like to admit.

Bottom line

Cardano’s sitting at an interesting pivot. If the bulls can gather enough steam to break resistance, that $1 dream might not be too far-fetched. If not? Well, get ready for more sideways shuffle.