Cardano rallies 11% in May, but analysts warn of downside risk

• ADA is currently priced at $0.7677, down 0.04% in the last 24 hours.
• A bullish MACD crossover has formed, supporting short-term upside.
• ADA futures open interest dropped 0.43% to $920.12 million.

Cardano (ADA) has recorded an 11% monthly gain so far in May, buoyed by a technical bounce from the $0.72 support level.

However, underlying market indicators raise caution.

Despite recent bullish momentum, ADA continues to struggle within a tight trading range and faces potential bearish pressure from weakening derivatives data.

At the time of writing, ADA is priced at $0.7677, reflecting a minor 0.04% decline over the last 24 hours.

On the 4-hour chart, ADA rebounded from the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.74, climbing toward a short-term resistance level of $0.7745.

This movement marks the latest attempt to retest the $0.84 resistance zone, which Cardano last approached on 13 May and 23 May.

Yet, the upside move has been met with hesitation.

The token remains stuck between the key $0.72 and $0.77 levels — a range that analysts are closely monitoring as a “no-trade zone” due to limited directional clarity.

Mixed technical signals

Currently, ADA is consolidating above the 200-day EMA, with the moving average structure offering some near-term support.

The MACD indicator has formed a bullish crossover, further confirmed by positive histogram bars.

This setup suggests that buyers still maintain some control over short-term price action.

However, not all technical signals are aligned. A bearish crossover between the 50- and 100-day EMAs is beginning to form.

If ADA breaks below the 200-day EMA, this crossover could result in a “death cross” scenario — a historically bearish technical pattern that often signals extended declines.

Cardano’s ability to maintain momentum will likely depend on whether it can break through the $0.77 resistance barrier.

A successful breach could lead to a rally back toward the $0.84 level.

In contrast, failure to hold above $0.72 could see ADA retesting longer-term support near $0.70.

Derivatives data weakens

While spot prices hold firm, data from the derivatives market presents a less optimistic view.

According to CoinGlass, open interest in ADA futures contracts has declined 0.43% to $920.12 million.

This declining activity in the derivatives space reflects weakening trader interest and reduces the likelihood of a strong breakout.

It also indicates that large speculative positions are being trimmed or closed, a trend that often leads to price consolidation or short-term reversals.

ADA at a critical level

Cardano’s price action now depends on whether it can decisively break out of its current range.

While there is potential for a move back to $0.84 if bulls regain momentum, current market dynamics suggest ADA could remain range-bound or even experience renewed selling pressure.

Volatility in the broader crypto market has also contributed to ADA’s stagnation.

Bitcoin is currently holding near the $109,000 level, and major altcoins are consolidating after strong April rallies.

Without a strong catalyst, Cardano may struggle to attract fresh inflows in the short term.

As of now, ADA remains in a technical holding pattern, with both bullish and bearish scenarios in play.

The next few trading sessions will be critical in determining whether Cardano can reclaim its March highs — or face another leg lower.