Cardano ETF Approval Odds Climb to 75%—Will ADA Break Out as Momentum Builds?

Bloomberg analysts now assign a 75% chance the SEC will greenlight a spot Cardano ETF in 2025, according to a new filing summary circulating on crypto Twitter. The listing—filed by Grayscale and highlighted in a TapTools post—places ADA in the same conversation as other major altcoins, such as Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin, all of which have increasing odds of regulatory approval.

The ETF push comes as part of a broader wave of filings following the successful launches of Bitcoin ETFs, with Bloomberg Intelligence now tracking multiple altcoin proposals that have deadlines landing between Q3 and Q4 this year.

ADA’s filing was submitted February 10, 2025, with a final decision deadline of October 23. While approval is far from certain, the “likely yes” SEC classification in Bloomberg’s model has emboldened bulls.

ADA is currently trading at $0.705, up 3% on the day and extending a near 14% gain over the past two weeks. Technically, price is now holding above its 21-day EMA ($0.675) but remains capped below the 200-day SMA at $0.771—a key level that previously rejected the token in March.

RSI is climbing toward 57, suggesting healthy momentum without entering overbought territory. The MACD histogram is widening slightly above the zero line, indicating that the rally may still have room to run. ADA’s failure to reclaim $0.74 in recent weeks now frames that level as the next critical breakout zone.

Moreover, on-chain, whale wallets have added more than 420 million ADA in April alone, worth roughly $289 million, according to data from IntoTheBlock. That brings total large-holder ownership to 12.89 billion ADA, reinforcing longer-term conviction despite lackluster price action earlier this year.

Developer activity remains a strong point, with Cardano topping GitHub commit metrics among major chains. However, transactional usage has declined, with daily fee revenue and trading volume dropping by over 50% since March. The divergence between builder confidence and network demand could define ADA’s medium-term trajectory.

Cardano ETF Momentum Could Catalyze a Breakout, But Resistance Looms

A 75% ETF approval estimate for Cardano is no small catalyst, especially as the network sits just under multi-month resistance and continues to attract smart money flows. Technicals are leaning bullish, but ADA must convincingly flip $0.74 to trigger a broader trend shift.

Until then, the Cardano community remains in wait-and-see mode. If approval odds continue to climb or ETF filings progress through key SEC phases, ADA’s next leg up may come faster than most expect. For now, it’s a high-conviction consolidation with ETF speculation adding real weight to the bullish case.