ADA’s Fate: Reversal or Continued Decline Amidst Whale Sell-Off?

Cardano (ADA) has dropped over 23%, staying below $1 for more than a week, but technical indicators suggest the downtrend may be losing strength.
Whale addresses holding 1M–10M ADA have declined, signaling that large investors are offloading, which could add selling pressure unless accumulation picks up.
Key levels to watch: A break above $0.75 could push ADA toward $1.02–$1.17, while losing $0.64 support may send it down to $0.58.

Cardano (ADA) has had a rough week, slipping more than 23% and staying below $1 for over seven days straight. The bearish pressure remains, yet technical indicators suggest that the current downtrend might be losing steam.

Momentum Weakening? ADX Shows Fading Bearish Strength

The Average Directional Index (ADX), a key tool for measuring trend strength, has dropped to 23.4, down from 34 yesterday and 37 two days ago. The ADX doesn’t tell us if the price will go up or down—it simply measures how strong the trend is. Generally, a reading above 25 signals a strong trend, while below 20 suggests a weakening or consolidating market.

Since ADA’s ADX is falling sharply, it implies the current downtrend is losing momentum. However, this doesn’t mean an immediate reversal. If the ADX keeps dropping below 20, it could indicate that selling pressure is fading, potentially leading to consolidation or even a bullish turnaround. But if it stabilizes and starts rising again, bears might regain control, keeping ADA under pressure in the short term.

Whale Holdings on the Decline—Cause for Concern?

Another notable trend is the steady drop in Cardano whale addresses. Wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA have fallen to 2,455, down from 2,484 on March 8.

This suggests large holders have been selling off their positions, a sign that confidence among high-value investors may be weakening. Whale movements matter because they often set market trends—when whales buy, it signals confidence and can push prices up. But when they sell, it often adds selling pressure, weighing down the price.

With whale addresses now at their lowest level since March 2, ADA might struggle unless big investors return. If this trend continues, volatility could spike as smaller investors absorb the selling pressure. On the flip side, if whale holdings stabilize or start climbing again, it could indicate fresh accumulation, potentially paving the way for ADA’s recovery.

Will Cardano Reclaim $1? Key Levels to Watch

Cardano’s Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) suggest the market is in a consolidation phase. Short-term EMAs remain below long-term ones, but the gap between them is relatively narrow—indicating that bearish momentum isn’t overwhelming.

For ADA to retest key resistance at $0.75, buying pressure needs to increase significantly. If bulls can break past this level, the next upside targets could be $0.81, $1.02, and even $1.17, assuming momentum continues to build.

On the downside, if selling pressure picks up again, ADA could test support at $0.64. Losing this level would weaken its market structure, making a drop to $0.58 increasingly likely.

With EMAs narrowing and key indicators showing a weakening downtrend, ADA is at a critical juncture. Whether it breaks out or sinks further will depend on market sentiment, whale activity, and overall crypto trends in the coming days.