A Cardano Price Close below $1.80, Brings $1.50 into focus

The Cardano price is struggling to recover above the psychological resistance at $2.00 and may soon lose the support of the 200-DMA. Cardano (ADA) performed poorly in October and finished the month with a -7% loss. The ADA token is trading at $1.92 (-2.49%) this morning, which translates to $63.8 billion in market cap, ranking Cardano the 5th-largest cryptocurrency, ahead of Solana (SOL).

ADA has underperformed rivals over the last two months. Following the long-awaited Alonzo hard fork, which brought smart contract functionality to Cardano, the price has fallen off a cliff. In early September, the Cardano price reached a high of $3.18 and a market cap of almost $100b.

However, despite Bitcoin and Ethereum setting new records in October, Cardano has slid 40% from its all-time high, erasing $37 billion of value in the process. As a result, the token has broken below the significant support at $2.00 and is testing the 200-day moving average at $1.80. Furthermore, if the 200-DMA fails to stem the bleed, Cardano’s underperformance could accelerate.

ADA Price Forecast

The daily chart shows the Cardano price has dropped out of the descending triangle pattern. The bottom edge of the pattern at $2.00 was formerly significant support and, therefore, becomes the first resistance level. Notably, the 50-DMA at 2.18 and the 100 at $21.6 straddles the descending top of the triangle eat $2.17, providing robust confluent resistance above the market. However, the 200-DMA at $1.80 is holding up so far and as long as that remains the case, the price has a chance to recover. But if ADA closes below the 200, a return to the July highs around $1.50 looks probable.

Considering the importance of the 200-DMA (see July), it’s hard to build a bearish case whilst the price is above it. Therefore, I expect the Cardano price to bounce around between $1.80 and $2.18 in the immediate future. I can make a bullish argument above the descending trendline at $2.18 and a bearish one below $1.80. However, until either scenario plays out, I am neutral.